Year: 2026 | Month: February | Volume: 16 | Issue: 2 | Pages: 365-372
DOI: https://doi.org/10.52403/ijhsr.20260241
Inter-censual and Post-censual Population Projection of India from 2011 to 2030: Filling the Gaps
Kirtan Rana1, Praizy Bhandari2, Nidhi Nain2
1Departement of Community Medicine, 2Departement of Community Medicine,
1Maharishi Markandeshwar Medical College and Hospital, Kumarhatti-Solan, Maharishi Marakandeshwar University, Kumarhatti, Solan, Himachal Pradesh, India
2Gian Sagar Medical College and Hospital, Ramnagar; Baba Farid University of health and Sciences, Faridkot, Punjab
Corresponding Author: Kirtan Rana
ABSTRACT
Census is a vital survey which helps in enumerating the population of a country. In absence of census, mathematical models can be used to estimate the population of a country. The present study had projected the age-wise, gender-wise and residence-wise; inter-censual and post censual population of India from 2011 to 2030. The model used the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) population of base year 2010, distribution of population (residence-wise, gender-wise and age group-wise) for last 4 decades and extrapolated it to the end year of projection (2030).The model predicted overall population (in each age group) beside calculating population for some specific age groups i.e. under-5, 15 to 49 years and more than 60 years. The model was developed in Microsoft excel 2016. The study estimated an increase of 30.6% in total population; 25.6% increase in total male population, 35.9% increase in total female population; 16.1% increase in male population in rural areas, 26.9% increase in female population in rural areas; 46.7% increase in males in urban areas and 55.6% increase in females in urban areas from 2011 to 2030. The estimations from this study found an increase in population more among females than males. The inter-censual data can further help in supplementing the original census data and can help in formulating policies in absence of actual data.
Key words: census, inter-censual, mathematical model, population, post censual, projection